Saturday, November 23, 2013

IPO for Chinese Tech Companies !?!

Shares of 500.com Ltd and Sungy Mobile Ltd , surged in their U.S. debuts on Friday 22 November.

Big names led the offerings, Deutsche Bank for the online sports-lottery operator 500.com, while Credit Suisse and JP Morgan were the lead underwriters for the IPO of mobile applications maker Sungy Mobile.

However, once bitten, two hundred times shy and you will see why in the post No More Chinese Companies 

And also this is an excerpt from another post of mine:

I was taken by the hype and bought Facebook shares at its IPO (around $40). It was my first IPO purchase so I had to take it down :). At some point the stock reached $20 and I was highly tempted to double my position but I remembered the sage of Omaha's rules:
Rule no.1: Never lose money.
Rule no.2: Never forget rule No.1.
He did not say: Make up the lost money.
So I did not buy any FB shares.
And a few weeks ago the stock went above $40, sold half of it at $43 and the other half at $50. I had a feeling the stock would go higher (it closed on Friday 18 Oct at $54) but I did not want to take any chances.

However, having said that (actually written) I am sure these 2 Chinese companies will do perfectly fine and their investors will make money. After all I have not invested in them :).

Time to Get Out of Market?

"There is a moment in every bull market when investors worry more about missing gains than suffering losses.

The current rally appears to have reached that point.

The market coasted to its sixth straight weekly advance Friday, propelled by optimism over the Federal Reserve's easy-money policies and a torrent of cash from small investors.

..........................

The advance in the market is being driven partly by individual investors, who are suddenly agog over stocks.

Enticed by the market's blistering performance this year, retail investors have poured nearly $20 billion into domestic stock funds over the last month.

Their timing has intensified worries on Wall Street about the sustainability of the rally.

Small investors historically jump into stocks long after bull markets are underway, leaving themselves vulnerable to sharp losses when an eventual downturn hits. The current rally began in March 2009."


From LA Times Stocks coast to sixth weekly advance as rally continues

Sunday, October 20, 2013

Postcards to BB, Dell, and HP, and Amazon, and Cerberus

I have to stop sending these silly postcards with even sillier ideas.

And I would have not sent any postcard to Cerberus but I liked what its CEO and co-founder Steve Feinberg once said: "In general, I think that all of us are way overpaid in this business. It is almost embarrassing."

I was about to contact Lenovo as well, but after I read they had a smartphone called ... LePhone that is doing very well (2nd in China) I thought they would not be interested in BB, but it seems I was wrong (not that it matters anyhow) Lenovo may be eyeing BlackBerry as well.


So these are my silly ideas (not all of them fit on the back of the postcard):

1. Upgrade Z30 to come with Linux/Windows that will be used when a device (display + keyboard) is plugged to the phone.

'The notebook is dead, long live the notebook!'

2. Buy www.britannica.com and provide free access to anyone with a BB device (Wikipedia is the 6th most visited website, so you can see what I am getting at).

3. License BB10 to Chinese/Indian companies that can sell only to the respective markets (lose 2 billion customers but can you imagine the 'stampede' to create apps for BB10, no more of 'there aren't apps for BlackBerry')

4. Make the cheapest e-reader that works with only BB.  No charger, no big storage, after all you can read only one book at a given tim, and other no's just to make it as cheap as possible.

5. Other sillier ideas that I cannot bring myself writing them.

Here are real ideas: The Future of BlackBerry is RIM

Dear Mr. Dell,

Your company should buy BlackBerry and:
1. Upgrade Z30 to come with Linux/Windows that will be used when a device (display + keyboard) is plugged to the phone.
'The notebook is dead, long live the notebook!'
2. Dell to buy www.britannica.com and provide free access to anyone with a BB device (Wikipedia is the 6th most visited website, so you can see what I am getting at).
3. a few other ideas no space here
Mike (disgruntled BB investor that thinks BB is worth much more)
@curbexcitement




Dear Mr. Ali,

HP should buy BlackBerry and:
1. Release a new phone that will have Linux/Windows installed to be used when a 'device' (display + keyboard) is plugged to the phone.
'The notebook is dead, long live the notebook!'
2. HP to buy www.britannica.com and provide free access to anyone with a BB device (Wikipedia is the 6th most visited website, so you can see what I am getting at).
3. other ideas, but no space here

Regards,
Mike (disgruntled BB investor that thinks BB is worth much more)
Twitter:@curbexcitement








Dear Mr. Feinberg,

Cerberus should buy BlackBerry and:
1. Upgrade Z30 to come with Linux/Windows that will be used when a device (display + keyboard) is plugged to the phone.
'The notebook is dead, long live the notebook!'
2. Cerberus to buy www.britannica.com and provide free access to anyone with a BB device (Wikipedia is the 6th most visited website, so you can see what I am getting at).
3. a few other silly ideas but not enough space here
Regards,
Mike (disgruntled BB investor that thinks BB is worth much more)

Twitter: @curbexcitement


Google Closes $1,011.41 +122.61 (13.80%) on Friday 18 Oct

I remember the day I bought Google on borrowed money. I had read the week before how Google allowed employees to dedicate 15% of their time to personal projects and I was impressed. I must invest in this company I said so I cashed some Visa cheques (special offer 3.5% interest for 6 months). I could not wait the week-end to be over and on Monday I was up at 6 AM PST. I thought the exchange would open at 9 as I had in my mind, from some movie, the image of the opening bell rung at that time. But the exchange opened at 9:30. Anyway I bought 5 shares at around $700 (it was Nov. 2007). Almost right away the stock started its descent. I didn't care, as I considered myself the buy and hold investor, and I had high hopes in the rumored Google mobile phone. However, the mobile phone turned to be only a mobile phone operating system (the Android) so after a while I no longer could stomach its downward march. I sold the stock at around $500.

I was taken by the hype and bought Facebook shares at its IPO (around $40). It was my first IPO purchase so I had to take it down :). At some point the stock reached $20 and I was highly tempted to double my position but I remembered the sage of Omaha's rules:
Rule no.1: Never lose money.
Rule no.2: Never forget rule No.1.
He did not say: Make up the lost money.
So I did not buy any FB shares.
And a few weeks ago the stock went above $40, sold half of it at $43 and the other half at $50. I had a feeling the stock would go higher (it closed on Friday 18 Oct at $54) but I did not want to take any chances.
Once bitten, more than twice shy! I still have the mental scars of 2008.

I am quite curious what would happen to Apple Single-Handedly Stopped Apple!



Sunday, September 29, 2013

Mega Uranium and STEC

Unfortunately I own both of them.

STEC is being acquired by Western Digital (bought at around $13 and I will get some $6, should be grateful as the last price was around $4) and Mega is changing its' name to Uranium Capital Corporation as it was nothing mega about a penny stock worth $0.08/share down from the $3 I bought at and from a maximum of $7.4 in 2007.

The name change won't make any difference like in this case From Olympus Pacific Minerals to Besra.
The stock dropped -75% from when they changed the name. It is now $0.055 and yes I own this one too.

UPDATE:
"TERMS AND CONDITIONS:
We have been informed that the merger between sTec Inc. and Western Digital Corporation is effective. As a result, holders will receive approximately $6.85 USD for each common share of sTec Inc. held."
I cannot be bothered to check the exact purchase price, it was around $13 but it does not matter as the stock was in a registered account. And what is this sTec starting with a small letter? They just wanted to be more interesting.

Saturday, September 28, 2013

How BlackBerry (RIM) Failed to Adapt

Today I have read an interesting article in the Globe and Mail: Inside the fall of BlackBerry: How the smartphone inventor failed to adapt

Very sad for everyone who works there and for shareholders like me also. I mean like me because I bought at $120 and $55 and $13.

Not so sad for Thorsten Heins: Thorsten Heins' "Punishment" For Destroying BlackBerry: A $55 Million Golden Parachute

And some other executives will get nice packages if the company is sold and the new owner fires them.

I was curious to see the ad they mentioned in the article:

"The marketing campaign was confusing and vague: An ad that ran during the Super Bowl failed to explain what made the product distinct. A source close to the board said directors weren’t shown the ad before it ran, and some didn’t understand the content or the slogan, “Keep Moving.” 


Neither I liked it nor I understood it.

Will Z30 start the revival of BB or perhaps it is only a swan song?

http://crackberry.com/blackberry-z30-unboxing-video

and


Wednesday, September 18, 2013

My TFSA Anti-bragging Story




And the stories behind the ill-fated purchases:

BIOEXX www.theskepticalinvestor.net/2013/06/protein-for-world.html

CELM www.theskepticalinvestor.net/2012/11/no-more-chinese-companies.html

EGL www.theskepticalinvestor.net/2012/12/the-eagle-that-turned-out-to-be-turkey_20.html

HYX recommandation from beatingtheindex.com, I mean Mich the guy behind the site put the money where his mouth is and bought it himself so no hard feelings here, only the facts

REM I read somewhere about it

XHY, XSB, XRB I bought bonds as I'd thought they are safer than stocks, it doesn't seem so

LONGTOP www.theskepticalinvestor.net/2012/11/no-more-chinese-companies.html

MQL same as HYX

MKP If the people pay their mortgages I should be doing o.k. and they seem to be paying them, don't know why the stock is down

PDL Doctor Stock from www.investinthemarkets.com

PBR In 2009 the stock was $51, how much could it go lower especially as the price of oil has gone up in the past 4 years? But it did.

RWX my love affair with real estate

TMC same as MKP

Tuesday, September 3, 2013

Steve Ballmer's Last Stand

"From: Steve Ballmer
To: MS FTEs
Date: Sep. 2, 8:00 PM PDT (Sep. 3, 6:00 AM EET)
Subject: Accelerating Growth

We announced some exciting news today: We have entered into an agreement to purchase Nokia’s Devices & Services business, which includes their smartphone and mobile phone businesses, their award-winning design team, manufacturing and assembly facilities around the world, and teams devoted to operations, sales, marketing and support. ....."

Reuters: "Two years after hitching its fate to Microsoft's Windows Phone software, Nokia collapsed into the arms of the  U.S. software giant on Tuesday, agreeing to sell its main handset business for $7.2 billion....
Nokia's Canadian boss Stephen Elop, who ran Microsoft's business software division before jumping to Nokia in 2010, will return to the U.S. firm as head of its mobile devices business - a Trojan horse, according to disgruntled Finnish media."


I bought Microsoft and Nokia around 2 years ago. Haven't sold any MSFT but sold 75% of NOK until last week. Today Tuesday 3 September, MSFT is -6% and NOK +30%. I cannot catch a break.

MSFT went up 7% when Ballmer announced his resignation. "So you are happy I am leaving!" said Ballmer to the investors. "He who laughs last, laughs best." added he. And the stock went down 5% after he announced MSFT would buy Nokia phone business. 

I dream all day and night about someone, anyone, buying Blackberry (formerly Research in Motion).
I have no hope I will get back the $120 I bought it at long time ago or even the $65 my wife bought it at, but I think in my loser's opinion around $25 for a share would be a fair price.

So who could buy Blackberry, just my list:
  • the Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim who owns America Movil
  • a billionaire from China
  • a billionaire from India
  • Facebook 
  • Amazon
  • someone, anyone.

Saturday, August 17, 2013

Carl Icahn's Tweets Boost Aple Stock

I am very pleased with Mr. Icahn's tweets.


Both of us could make a very good team. I would be the one who Single-Handedly Stopped Apple! and he would increase the stock at the right moment after he has loaded with the shares that I have driven down.

Initially I wanted to send Mr. Icahn the postcard I sent to Apple as they would listen to him if he would care to pass on my message but how many postcards shall I send?

An email would suffice not that anyone would read it either (even fewer chance to be read than a postcard).


Sunday, July 28, 2013

Starbucks +7.61%

They had 'silly numbers' as an analyst commented their latest results.

Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)' third-quarter operating income increased 25% to $615.2 million, or $0.55 per share. Total sales jumped 13% to $3.7 billion. Global comparable-store sales increased 8%, with 7% of that made up of all-important traffic growth. Lower costs, for example for coffee, also fed into the cafe giant's improved profitability.

More and more people buy the overpriced, bitter and burnt Starbucks coffee.
And sometime last year I could see the potential of Starbucks; the recession was over, most people were safe about their jobs so let's enjoy life as they could.

My strategy was to double my position in Starbucks in small steps until the price hit around $70. And once the stock got to $100 I would have sold half of it. So I started buying at around $55-60, increased my position by 20% and all the sudden the stock started sliding and got dangerously close to my average price of $47. I could not stomach any longer and started selling back what I had acquired recently until I had the same number of shares I started with before I had decided on the 'strategy' of doubling SBUX,

And now the stock is $73!


Saturday, July 20, 2013

Postcard to Apple Investor Relations


"We were in an Apple store shortly after the iPhone 5 was released and heard a Genius Bar employee tell a customer that the iPhone 5 should have been bigger. This is clearly something some people want. " from 'Sweeping changes' coming to Apple stores


The following is what I wrote in the postcard and a few other things that did not fit:

***
I am an Apple shareholder so I am allowed to send suggestion :).

1. iPhone with a bigger screen and a very powerful processor. It will have MacOS installed as well that will be used for a ‘device’ (display + keyboard) plugged to the phone. No need to carry a smartphone and a notebook.
'The notebook is dead, long live the notebook!'

2. Apple to buy www.britannica.com and provide free access to anyone with an Apple device (Wikipedia is the 6th most visited website, so you can see what I am getting at).

3. Buy the rights to everything that BBC produces, and any old American and foreign movies that are not expensive and set up a website where they can be accessed from anywhere in the world again free of charge for anyone who uses an Apple device.

4. I can borrow DVDs from my library to watch movies. I wonder whether they would be allowed to digitize them so I can watch the DVD online that would be a better experience (sometimes the DVD does not work due to its overuse I suppose). Watching the DVD online would involve checking it out and in - only one 'library card' watching the movie - so it would be a similar process to borrowing the physical item.
Apple would provide the 'equipment' to quickly digitize the DVDs with the condition that for a certain period of time only users with an Apple device to be able to watch them.
***

Initially I wanted to use this photo, an apple cocktail tree (multiple apple varieties on the same tree) but the photo was not to clear and anyway too much of a cliche.

So I went for this photo taken when I was in Whistler, BC, Canada. It is July and Investor Relations receive a winter postcard. It would keep them cool looking at it.

I was thinking to send the same postcard to one of the top institutional holders of Apple but no point in doing it.

UPDATE: sent an e-mail with my ideas (I know, everyone has ideas) to Northern Trust Corporation and Invesco just not to say I have not done it. Apple would not listen to me but perhaps they might listen to some of their major shareholders.

Top Institutional Holders
HolderShares% OutValue*Reported
Vanguard Group, Inc. (The)43,247,8244.6119,144,081,771Mar 31, 2013
State Street Corporation37,194,6313.9616,464,575,358Mar 31, 2013
FMR, LLC34,747,6823.7015,381,408,914Mar 31, 2013
BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, N.A.25,668,4312.7311,362,387,666Mar 31, 2013
Northern Trust Corporation13,848,7151.486,130,272,181Mar 31, 2013
JP Morgan Chase & Company13,551,2571.445,998,599,423Mar 31, 2013
Bank of New York Mellon Corporation12,562,5911.345,560,956,532Mar 31, 2013
Invesco Ltd.12,307,4981.315,448,037,064Mar 31, 2013
Susquehanna International Group, LLP12,059,2211.285,338,134,767Mar 31, 2013
Price (T.Rowe) Associates Inc11,659,7131.245,161,288,556Mar 31, 2013

Monday, July 15, 2013

Postcard to Warren Buffett

Yes, I have sent a postcard to Warren Buffett.

Front of postcard


Back of postcard


It didn't fit the card - I wasn't going to send 2 postcards - but I had these examples as well:


Sunday, June 30, 2013

Protein for the World


An article in Globe & Mail made me buy the stock some 2 years ago. I do not seem to find the link now so I had to upload the images (see them at the end of the post) - I wanted to keep them as 'proof' so took a few photos of the article (click on the images to see them full size).


Very compelling all the information presented, producing protein from canola, it sounded like making gold out of ... dust (for the lack of a better comparison).

And the world needs protein. China and India are of course mentioned in the article; they always mention China for the newly launched companies and lately they have started to add India as well.

I bought the stock almost right away after the article (the constant fear of missing the boat) so of course as usual close to the maximum then the stock kept hovering close to my buying price, even lower, but I did not worry. The 1st factory was supposed to come online and then the 2nd to feed the whole world with apparently the so abundant and cheap canola.

Loss so far - 98% even if they still have a compelling case according to their website.


However the proof is in the pudding, in this case in the price of the stock.
As they say it is execution that matters.

Monday, June 24, 2013

Against Everyone and Everything to Express my Displeasure

I keep receiving letters from the companies whose shares I own to vote for various items.
Usually I would not pay any attention and the letters would end up in the recycling bin.

But this time I have decided to exercise my shareholder voting rights especially as you can vote online using www.proxyvote.com.

Formation Metals Inc. (TSE:FCO)
Bought at an average of $2.7 and the stock was $0.085 on Jun 24 so I compltely disagree with the following:

AGAINST directors, auditors, and some other items they must be of no good as the board of directors recommended 'For'. 

Bioexx Specialty Proteins Ltd (TSE:BXI)
Average buying price $1.9, the stock $0.035 on Jun 23

You guessed right, AGAINST all proposals 

Morgan Stanley India Investment Fund Inc (NYSE:IIF)
Average buying price $22, the stock $15.90

Not so bad here with the exception that for the past 5 years IIF is down -55.1% and the Indian Index SENSEX +26.26% (I have owned to stock since 2006-2007).
Thank you very much!

AGAINST the directors (there were no other items otherwise I would have voted against them also).
I was curious and I checked the performance for the past 10 years: IIF +45.21%, SENSEX +471.76%.
Enough said.

Twitter: @curbexcitement

Saturday, June 1, 2013

Against Facebook list of nominees for directors

Big names here, but I had voted against. I had paid around $40 for a share and now it is $24 so I didn't have any other choice.


Actually I should have voted for Mark Zuckerberg as I still trust him but cannot be bothered to change my vote now, especially that it would not matter either way.

Tuesday, May 14, 2013

21 Ways Rich People Think Differently

1. Average people think MONEY is the root of all evil. Rich people believe POVERTY is the root of all evil.

"The average person has been brainwashed to believe rich people are lucky or dishonest," Siebold writes.  That's why there's a certain shame that comes along with "getting rich" in lower-income communities. "The world class knows that while having money doesn't guarantee happiness, it does make your life easier and more enjoyable."

I am an average person here. I think the same.

2. Average people think selfishness is a vice. Rich people think selfishness is a virtue.

"The rich go out there and try to make themselves happy. They don't try to pretend to save the world," Siebold told Business Insider.  The problem is that middle class people see that as a negative––and it's keeping them poor, he writes. "If you're not taking care of you, you're not in a position to help anyone else. You can't give what you don't have."

Average too, how can selfishness be a virtue?

3. Average people have a lottery mentality. Rich people have an action mentality.

"While the masses are waiting to pick the right numbers and praying for prosperity, the great ones are solving problems," Siebold writes. "The hero [middle class people] are waiting for may be God, government, their boss or their spouse. It's the average person's level of thinking that breeds this approach to life and living while the clock keeps ticking away."

I don't have the lottery mentality. I have the action mentality but that's it, not too much action.

4. Average people think the road to riches is paved with formal education. Rich people believe in acquiring specific knowledge.

"Many world-class performers have little formal education, and have amassed their wealth through the acquisition and subsequent sale of specific knowledge," he writes. "Meanwhile, the masses are convinced that master's degrees and doctorates are the way to wealth, mostly because they are trapped in the linear line of thought that holds them back from higher levels of consciousness...The wealthy aren't interested in the means, only the end."

I fully agree with, specific knowledge is more financially rewarding than education.

5. Average people long for the good old days. Rich people dream of the future.

"Self-made millionaires get rich because they're willing to bet on themselves and project their dreams, goals and ideas into an unknown future," Siebold writes. "People who believe their best days are behind them rarely get rich, and often struggle with unhappiness and depression."

I dream of the future too, but I dream too much instead of doing more.

6. Average people see money through the eyes of emotion. Rich people think about money logically.

"An ordinarily smart, well-educated and otherwise successful person can be instantly transformed into a fear-based, scarcity driven thinker whose greatest financial aspiration is to retire comfortably," he writes. "The world class sees money for what it is and what it's not, through the eyes of logic. The great ones know money is a critical tool that presents options and opportunities."

Correct

7. Average people earn money doing things they don't love. Rich people follow their passion.

"To the average person, it looks like the rich are working all the time," Siebold says. "But one of the smartest strategies of the world class is doing what they love and finding a way to get paid for it." On the other hand, middle class take jobs they don't enjoy "because they need the money and they've been trained in school and conditioned by society to live in a linear thinking world that equates earning money with physical or mental effort."

Genesis 3:19
"By the sweat of your face you shall eat bread, till you return to the ground, for out of it you were taken; for you are dust, and to dust you shall return.”


8. Average people set low expectations so they're never disappointed. Rich people are up for the challenge.

"Psychologists and other mental health experts often advise people to set low expectations for their life to ensure they are not disappointed," Siebold writes. "No one would ever strike it rich and live their dreams without huge expectations."

Always want what you can get, never want what you cannot have.

9. Average people believe you have to DO something to get rich. Rich people believe you have to BE something to get rich.

"That's why people like Donald Trump go from millionaire to nine billion dollars in debt and come back richer than ever," he writes. "While the masses are fixated on the doing and the immediate results of their actions, the great ones are learning and growing from every experience, whether it's a success or a failure, knowing their true reward is becoming a human success machine that eventually produces outstanding results."

You do have to do something to get rich. I don't get this advice.

10. Average people believe you need money to make money. Rich people use other people's money.

Linear thought might tell people to make money in order to earn more, but Siebold says the rich aren't afraid to fund their future from other people's pockets. "Rich people know not being solvent enough to personally afford something is not relevant. The real question is, 'Is this worth buying, investing in, or pursuing?'" he writes.

See 9 on how to make money.

11. Average people believe the markets are driven by logic and strategy. Rich people know they're driven by emotion and greed.

Investing successfully in the stock market isn't just about a fancy math formula. "The rich know that the primary emotions that drive financial markets are fear and greed, and they factor this into all trades and trends they observe," Siebold writes. "This knowledge of human nature and its overlapping impact on trading give them strategic advantage in building greater wealth through leverage."

I agree, markets are irrational.

12. Average people live beyond their means. Rich people live below theirs.

"Here's how to live below your means and tap into the secret wealthy people have used for centuries: Get rich so you can afford to," he writes. "The rich live below their means, not because they're so savvy, but because they make so much money that they can afford to live like royalty while still having a king's ransom socked away for the future."

It's not really accurate, you cannot live beyond your means for too long so in the end most people live within their means, it is simple economics.

13. Average people teach their children how to survive. Rich people teach their kids to get rich.

Rich parents teach their kids from an early age about the world of "haves" and "have-nots," Siebold says. Even he admits many people have argued that he's supporting the idea of elitism. He disagrees.

"[People] say parents are teaching their kids to look down on the masses because they're poor. This isn't true," he writes. "What they're teaching their kids is to see the world through the eyes of objective reality––the way society really is." If children understand wealth early on, they'll be more likely to strive for it later in life.

No comment here.

14. Average people let money stress them out. Rich people find peace of mind in wealth.

The reason wealthy people earn more wealth is that they're not afraid to admit that money can solve most problems, Siebold says. "[The middle class] sees money as a never-ending necessary evil that must be endured as part of life. The world class sees money as the great liberator, and with enough of it, they are able to purchase financial peace of mind."

True

15. Average people would rather be entertained than educated. Rich people would rather be educated than entertained.

While the rich don't put much stock in furthering wealth through formal education, they appreciate the power of learning long after college is over, Siebold says. "Walk into a wealthy person's home and one of the first things you'll see is an extensive library of books they've used to educate themselves on how to become more successful," he writes. "The middle class reads novels, tabloids and entertainment magazines."

Yes, right on.

16. Average people think rich people are snobs. Rich people just want to surround themselves with like-minded people.

The negative money mentality poisoning the middle class is what keeps the rich hanging out with the rich, he says. "[Rich people] can't afford the messages of doom and gloom," he writes. "This is often misinterpreted by the masses as snobbery. Labeling the world class as snobs is another way the middle class finds to feel better bout themselves and their chosen path of mediocrity."

I don't think so. You move in certain circles you hang around with those people. I read somewhere that your income is the average income of the 10 people you mostly associate /are friends with.
I'd like to test this theory by associating with Bill Gates and Warren Buffet :).

17. Average people focus on saving. Rich people focus on earning.

Siebold theorizes that the wealthy focus on what they'll gain by taking risks, rather than how to save what they have. "The masses are so focused on clipping coupons and living frugally they miss major opportunities," he writes. "Even in the midst of a cash flow crisis, the rich reject the nickle and dime thinking of the masses. They are the masters of focusing their mental energy where it belongs: on the big money."

That's so true, I personally am too focused on saving and ... using coupons and buying products on sale. I sometimes drink Pepsi (I am a Pepsi not a  Coca-Cola man) and only in 237 ml cans but I saw a 2l Pepsi bottle for $1 at Walmart that got me really excited. I also have a coupon on my computer for sweet potato fries for $2 from A&W.

18. Average people play it safe with money. Rich people know when to take risks.

"Leverage is the watchword of the rich," Siebold writes. "Every investor loses money on occasion, but the world class knows no matter what happens, they will aways be able to earn more."

I lost lots of money with the stocks because I didn't play safe. See 11.

19. Average people love to be comfortable. Rich people find comfort in uncertainty.

For the most part, it takes guts to take the risks necessary to make it as a millionaire––a challenge most middle class thinkers aren't comfortable living with. "Physical, psychological, and emotional comfort is the primary goal of the middle class mindset," Siebold writes.

World class thinkers learn early on that becoming a millionaire isn't easy and the need for comfort can be devastating. They learn to be comfortable while operating in a state of ongoing uncertainty."

"The greatest wealth is to live content with little, for there is never want where the mind is satisfied."
—Lucretius.


20. Average people never make the connection between money and health. Rich people know money can save your life.

While the middle class squabbles over the virtues of Obamacare and their company's health plan, the super wealthy are enrolled in a super elite "boutique medical care" association, Siebold says. "They pay a substantial yearly membership fee that guarantees them 24-hour access to a private physician who only serves a small group of members," he writes. "Some wealthy neighborhoods have implemented this strategy and even require the physician to live in the neighborhood."

I do make the connection.

21. Average people believe they must choose between a great family and being rich. Rich people know you can have it all.

The idea the wealth must come at the expense of family time is nothing but a "cop-out", Siebold says.

"The masses have been brainwashed to believe it's an either/or equation," he writes. "The rich know you can have anything you want if you approach the challenge with a mindset rooted in love and abundance."

I agree, you can have both a great family and wealth.


From Steve Siebold, author of "How Rich People Think."

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/21-ways-rich-people-think-differently.html?page=all

Monday, May 13, 2013

Can You Really Get Free Silver?!

At least this is what they claim (same video):

http://davideifrig.com/
http://pro.stansberryresearch.com/1305PWA2OPTIM/LREMP516/

I doubt it, but I'd like to try it to see whether it works.












Tuesday, May 7, 2013

Lesson from Dow Jones over 15,000



FXI - iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index
RSX - Market Vector Russia ETF Trust
CEE - Central Europe Russia and Turkey
IIF - Morgan Stanley India Investment Fund
VNM - Market Vectors Vietnam
EWZ - iShares MSCI Brazil Index

DO NOT BUY EMERGING STOCKS!

And yes, unfortunately I have all of them (no surprise here) except EWZ.
I would have laughed all the way to the bank buying a US ETF (one for large companies), instead of the emerging markets ones. Now I am crying all the way to the bank.


Saturday, April 13, 2013

Berkshire Hathaway's five years wins over S&P might end

"To date, we’ve never had a five-year period of under-performance, having managed 43 times to surpass the S&P over such a stretch. But the S&P has now had gains in each of the last four years, outpacing us over that period. If the market continues to advance in 2013, our streak of five year wins will end."

From the Berkshire Hathaway 2012 shareholder letter (emphasis mine).

The explanation is simple. I bought BRK 2 years ago. If Warren Buffett knew it he would pay me to sell my shares :). As a matter of fact having breakfast with him once would suffice as I would still be happy to sell my shares at least now when I have no loss.

Not only did I stop Apple (see my post here) but I made it lose around 35% of the value so BRK seemed to be the next obvious target.

After all Douglas Kass, the investment manager who accepted billionaire Warren Buffett’s challenge of asking bearish questions about the company at its annual meeting in May might end up being right ... as long as I own the stock. He was (perhaps he still is) a BRK short seller.

Kass Takes Buffett’s Challenge to Present Bearish Questions

@curbexcitement

Sunday, March 24, 2013

"Record U.S. stocks at lowest valuation since 1980"

S&P 500 is trading at 15.4 times profit

"Even though U.S. stocks more than doubled during the four-year bull market, individual investors' aversion to equities has left companies in the S&P 500 cheaper than at any record high since 1980.

The S&P 500 rose to an all-time closing high of 1,563.23 March 14, up more than 130% from its 2009 lows.

The index trades at 15.4 times reported profit, below the average 19.9 reached in bull markets since 1962, according to data compiled by Bloomberg."

Although individuals have added almost $20 billion to U.S. stock funds so far this year, the amount is just 3.5% of the withdrawals since 2007 and compares with $44 billion placed with fixed-income managers in 2013, according to the Investment Company Institute.

For bulls, the absence of private buyers shows that there is plenty of money to keep the rally going.

Bears contend that the pessimism means the rally is too dependent on Federal Reserve stimulus and will fizzle once central bank support ebbs."

Full article here http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20130324/REG/303249997

I am still buying stocks - ETFs to be exact, as I hope will never ever be lured again to individual stocks - but I am fearful so I am buying bonds as well and I never bought bonds before as I'd thought stocks were a better investment. The Great Recession proved me wrong and the lesson was costly.

 

Sunday, March 17, 2013

Cyprus' savers forced to take deposit haircut

I was just wondering when this would happen and which country will be the first one to do this. Are the American savers going to have the same fate? How else will the US federal government going to pay off the trillions of debt.

'THEFT, PURE AND SIMPLE'

In a radical departure from previous aid packages - and one that gave rise to incredulity and anger across the country - euro zone finance ministers forced Cyprus' savers to pay up to 10 percent of their deposits to raise almost 6 billion euros.

Parliament was due to meet on Sunday to vote on the measure, and approval was far from assured.

The decision prompted a run on cashpoints, most of which were depleted by mid afternoon, and co-operative credit societies closed to prevent angry savers withdrawing deposits.

The deposit levy - set at 9.9 percent on bank deposits exceeding 100,000 euros and 6.7 percent on anything below that - will take place on Tuesday after a bank holiday on Monday.

To guard against capital flight, Cyprus took immediate steps to prevent electronic money transfers over the weekend.

At one cashpoint in the capital Nicosia, a pensioner couple said they had visited several automatic teller machines without success. "We are trying to pull as much as we can," one told Reuters, reaching for a wallet containing four debit cards.

"I'm extremely angry. I worked years and years to get it together and now I am losing it on the say-so of the Dutch and the Germans," said British-Cypriot Andy Georgiou, 54, who returned to Cyprus in mid-2012 with his savings.

"They call Sicily the island of the mafia. It's not Sicily, it's Cyprus. This is theft, pure and simple," said a pensioner.

The levy breaks a euro zone taboo by hitting depositors.

from http://ca.news.yahoo.com/savers-forced-bear-costs-cyprus-bailout-051941784.html

Thursday, March 14, 2013

Sold City

I had only 10 shares, bought in August 2009, more like an experiment as I seemed to have missed on the banks shares revival.
Buffett had bought Wells Fargo, I decided to be a contrarian and go for the unloved City.

I should have not, Wells Fargo increased 32% in comparison with 16% for City.



Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Ally's interest rates before and after the purchase by RBC

Before
After




No comments! Time to get my money out and move it to ING Direct, that offers (still) 1.35%.

Saturday, March 9, 2013

From Olympus Pacific Minerals to Besra (but changing the name won't make a difference! )



Bought the stock at an average price of of $0.60 (in 2006 and 2009) and now the share is $0.18.

Toronto, 20  November 2012:  Besra  is the new name for Olympus Pacific Minerals. After twenty years operating as Olympus Pacific Minerals Inc it is time for a change. Why a SE Asia based gold mining company should be named after a mountain in Greece is one of those strange “it just ended up that way” kind of anomalies.  With a bold and bright expansion plan ahead of it, the company felt it was the right  time to adopt a new name. An appropriate name, one that refers to the region in which the company operates and the traits to which it aspires. Besra is that name.
Continuing the explanation for the re-brand, Chief Executive Officer John Seton said, “A Besra is a bird of prey indigenous to the regions in SE Asia in which we operate.  A tenacious, fast flying hawk with acute vision;  traits to which we as a company aspire.  We are embarking on a new key stage of our development plan.  We’ve already successfully made the shift from exploration to producer which, for many companies, has proved difficult – but we’ve done it. Our two operating gold mines in Vietnam are continuing to deliver ounces, we’re increasing throughput and achieving higher recovery rates. Which means cashflow.”
“So now we’re committed to bringing our big goldfield project in East Malaysia online and become a truly significant gold producer.  Besra is the company that will do that. We’ve got a great team, we’ve got great projects and we’re about to take flight.  Bau in East Malaysia  is going to be a game changer for us. We believe Besra is truly an exciting opportunity for investors looking for undervalued growth companies in the gold sector.“
W: besra.com

http://www.besra.com/besra-takes-flight-a-new-direction-for-olympus-pacific-minerals/

Saturday, March 2, 2013

Free Coffee at McDonald's, again!


I wish they did not squander my money (I am a shareholder, minuscule but nevertheless a shareholder).
The free coffee should be only for customers who can produce a Starbucks card, or Tim Hortons or other coffee chain. They are the people who need to become McDonald's customers, not those who like freebies.
I am not a coffee drinker but I went to a McDonald's to have a free coffee, a case in point!

Monday, February 11, 2013

Size Does Matter

There are rumors that Apple will release iPhone 6 with a larger screen (4.8 or 5 inches) this year.
It was about time!
I am so close to switching to a larger screen smartphone (i.e. Samsung, as there is no other competitor that is in the same league with Apple).

How difficult is to make a phone with a larger screen?

One day Iacocca went to his chief engineer and said, "I want to add a convertible to our line." The engineer responded, "Yes sir. We can have a design ready for you in about nine months." Iacocca fired back, "No! You don't understand. I've made a decision. I want action. Take a car and saw the damn top off."

Just put a larger screen on the 'damn' phone!

I am still happy (minus the battery) with my 3 years old iPhone 3GS but what I need is a larger screen, don't want to carry a mini tablet as well. Give me the phlabet.

I look with jealousy (and desire) at my colleagues who have phones with larger screens.

I suffer from smartphone envy.
With the iPhone 6, the display is said to not only be larger, it’s specifically claimed in a note to be 4.8 inches in size or 5 inches in size. The image you see above comes from iMore where writer/illustrator Rene Richie has mocked up what the iPhone 6 might look like compared with a collection of popular devices. You’ll see the Samsung Galaxy S III, iPhone 5, Nokia Lumia 900, BlackBerry Dev Alpha, and Samsung Galaxy Note II. As you can see, it’s been generally accepted thus far that the iPhone 6 will have essentially the same amount of pixels as the iPhone 5, just spread out a bit more as it is with the iPad mini compared with the iPad 2.

From iPhone 6 tipped to team with iPhone 5S inside 2013

AdeleVEVO / Adele - Rumor Has It
 

Sunday, February 10, 2013

"I’ll Miss You Starbucks!"

It is a title like that that fills my heart with joy as I am a Starbucks shareholder, a minuscule one but nevertheless a shareholder (see here Why I bought Starbucks).

My comments were not allowed but this is my blog so I can have them here :):

  1. Laptop Nomad said,
    When I go overseas I stop drinking coffee as it is
    Nescafe which I can’t stand. I drink green tea which
    is one of my favorite drinks. I think I have had about
    Starbucks coffee about three times in my life. Not a big
    fan of Starbucks.
  2. ralf said, Huh? Starbucks coffee is overpriced poor coffee.
    Visit Italy on your EU trip and find out how real coffee tastes.

    NZ has excellent coffee at every street corner.
    There’s something wrong with you…
  3. NB said,
    Starbucks makes some of the worst non-instant coffee in the western world. Pretty well everywhere in Europe (I don’t know the Norwegian countryside so can’t be sure there, but everywhere I’ve been) you can get proper coffee rather than Starbucks’ Disney-esque c*%p. Even in the USA, a country known for poor food and colored water masquerading as coffee, it’s easy to get a liquid better than that which Starbucks offers.
@Laptop Nomad
I do not think I like your attitude :)

@ralf, @NB
I do not like you either :)

Thursday, February 7, 2013

Suncor, BlackBerry and Visa (yesterday)

Suncor down -5%, while XEG, an ETF for energy, is down only around -1%. I keep saying that I will get out of individual stocks but I can't bring myself doing it.

Cause: "Suncor's view is that the economic outlook for the Voyageur upgrader project is challenged. Suncor and its partner continue to work diligently towards determining an outcome for the project. The partners have been considering options for the project, including the implications of cancellation or indefinite deferral. No formal decisions regarding the project have been made and the partners continue to work toward a decision by the end of the first quarter of 2013.
...
Given the challenging economic outlook for the Voyageur upgrader project, at the end of the fourth quarter of 2012, the company performed an impairment test. Based on an assessment of expected future net cash flows, the company recorded an after-tax impairment charge of $1.487 billion,"   


"BlackBerry’s Z10 smartphone has attracted record orders at Canadian wireless carrier BCE Inc. (BCE), and analysts say sales are off to a strong start in the U.K., sparking a 23 percent stock rally over the past two days.
BCE, Canada’s No. 2 carrier, said early orders for the Z10 have topped any previous BlackBerry model, while one Rogers Communications Inc. (RCI/B) outlet in Toronto had sold out of the Z10 by 11 a.m. today on the first day of sales."

BlackBerry Z10 Gets Record Orders in Canada

Amen!
Still at 80% loss, but let's wait for the reviews that will come in. This phone will be make it or break it!
Will BlackBerry (former RIM) go the way of Nortel or the way of Apple some 7 years ago? 


Visa is one of my very few success stories V is from Victory and from Visa
I had 15 shares and after the stock doubled I sold 5 and not half as per my 'strategy' to sell half of any stock that doubles so I would not care what happens with the other half.
I did not sell half because I had trouble figuring how much half is. Is it 8 or 7 shares?
Lesson learnt: buy only an even number of shares not that I will have this problem many times.

But yesterday I decided to sell 3 shares for $161.77 (max. stock price for the last 52 weeks - 162.77). However, after a while I changed the sell price to 160.77, then as the stock was hovering around 160 I changed it again to 160.33 with the plan to just sell it at the market price towards the end of the day. A few cents there would not make too much a difference, I figured. But I forgot and when I checked the closing price it was 160.82 so my order at 160.77 would have filled!
As a matter of fact instead of 160.33 the order closed at 160.36 so quickly it spiked. Why? Visa announced stellar results, but some knew it just before the end of the day, otherwise the sudden spike cannot be explained. So the game is fixed!



Sunday, February 3, 2013

Dow closes above 14,000 for first time since 2007

This is a moment of financial joy but unfortunately not for me.

BearingPoint and Nortel are still dead and nothing will resurrect them. RIM is still at a 90% loss.

Sino-Forest, China Electric, LongTop Financials are still fraud companies (a few more details in a previous post of mine No More Chinese Companies).

My India funds (IFN and IIF) are still 60% lower!

The penny stocks I own are even 'pennier': a few have gone bankrupt, some have been exploring and exploring but to no avail, and the few that produce don't seem to do it too successfully.

Barclays and ING (Dutch bank, and I thought they were serious) are still -51% and -68% respectively.


The natural gas is still very low (I bought it in 2009 reasoning 'how much lower could it go?' but it did and a lot).

And my former darling Uranium stocks that seemed poised to rule the stock exchanges all over the world still have a long way to go to pre-Fukushima levels (they need to double to be more exact).

Dow Jones for the past 10 years

Friday, February 1, 2013

RBC buys Ally

All good things must come to an end, last year Scotiabank bought ING Direct now it is Ally.

I have saved the current interest rate as shown in my Ally account. Let's see how long for they are going to keep it.




Wednesday, January 30, 2013

RIM changes the name to BlackBerry!

This is never a good sign. Apple did not change their name when they were doing poorly (this before the iProducts). They did not call themselves Mac!

RIM did not ask for my ideas and neither do they care, but here it is.

A very cheap and sturdy phone, no touch screen, only for messaging, and voice for whoever will have a voice plan.

It will be called A1 and it will sell like hot cakes in the developing countries and not only (in the developed world mothers will buy this phone for their kids).

I am no graphic designer, otherwise I would have shown here my design of A1, so a Z10 will do for the time being.


Friday, January 25, 2013

A Perfect Poker Analogy To Explain The Biggest Mistake Investors Make

So, it's very important for most people to know when not to make a bet, because if you're going to come to the poker table, you're going to have to beat me, and you're going to have to beat those who take money.
So, the nature of investing is that a very small percentage of the people take money, essentially, in that poker game, away from other people who don't know when prices go up whether that means it's a good investment or if it's a more expensive investment.


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/ray-dalios-poker-analogy-for-investing-2013-1#ixzz2IuEMve6w

Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Apple -9.83% after market hours

464.25
-49.76 (-9.68%)
Real-time:   9:59AM EST, Thursday 24 Jan
 
Some of the titles
Apple Inc. (AAPL): First To The Tech Grave-Yard?
Could This Be the Demise of Apple Inc. (AAPL)'s Earnings?
Apple's iPhone disappointment fans doubt on growth
Apple Sales Gain Slowest Since ’09 as Competition Climbs

I should have sold the shares today Wednesday, as I already have a profit (yes I know I use too many times the word 'should').

I should have made the following analysis:
1. Good results, shares go up on Thursday, so what
2. Bad results, the shares go down
So in order to minimize the risk, selling would have been the best option, but my buy and hold 'strategy' does not let me do it even if I read somewhere that only billionaires like Warren Buffet and Bill Gates can afford nowadays to be long-term investors.

***
Just came back from the dentist. It takes so much time to properly clean your teeth: brush properly, floss, use a Sulca brush.

I was thinking Apple should make a product iMouth. It would be like a mouth guard with small electric rotating brushes that go between teeth and along the gum line, in short proper teeth cleaning, and you could watch TV at the same time.
It might be expensive, let's say $1,000 but wouldn't you pay this amount so that you saw your dentist only for the annual check-up? Yes, I thought so.
***


Here it is how Wall Street is reacting. I like especially this "Given the decline in the share price, we are lowering our 12-month price target to $888.00 from $1,111.0." How did they come up with these very nice looking numbers? 1,111 not 1,039 or 1,183 for example or why not 939 or 856 instead of 888. Did they really make any calculations?
 


BARCLAYS:

Capitulation Process Seems Well Underway: "It seems the reaction to this EPS report is universally negative – especially since AAPL gave subdued guidance and changed the way it does it (they really mean it). We believe a capitulation process is underway – and while painful – it is healthy since the loftiest expectations should be reined in quite a bit. This spring, Apple should be readying a bevy of new products and services – and when the builds for these products become known – shares may act a lot better. We have seen sentiment turn quickly before with other leaders like Facebook (in 2012) and Google (in 2011). While this recent sell-off and Apple’s execution of late has tested our patience, we will evaluate Apple from here based on whether these products and services create the kind of excitement we are used to. Maintain OW rating."

CLSA:
Two key (interrelated) questions related to Apple are 1) whether the company has lost its competitive edge and 2) what the right margin profile is longer term. We believe Apple maintains its premium brand image (e.g. iPhone ASP) but needs to adapt to marketplace demands and abandon misperceptions about “one-handed ease of use” (yes many like it, but many don’t) by broadening its iPhone lineup – the same way it abandoned its 7” tablet stance and delivered a best-in-class product. We believe margins with multiple phone form factors and a lower-end offering for emerging markets could be structurally lower, but this is very much discounted in the share price as discussed below. We lower F13/F14 EPS from $48.95/58.38 to $44.79/51.71 reflecting lower iPhone share, mini cannibalization, and lower gross margin. We cut our price target from $680 to $575 reflecting lower estimates and risk associated with its product transition. BUY maintained.

CREDIT SUISSE:
Three steps to a recovery: none coming imminently, patience required. First, a new product cycle (we expect a high-end iPhone refresh and lower end iPhone later in 2013). Second, increased carrier expansion: while this is clearly happening slower than we thought, we still believe it's likely over 12 months. Third, increased cash distribution: Apple ended the quarter with $137bn of net cash some ~30% of market cap and 31% onshore so the capacity to distribute exits. While all these catalysts are plausible, none are imminent in our view, meaning patience is required.

PIPER JAFFRAY:
We are buyers of AAPL on the pull back following the company's December quarter earnings report based on our belief that Street numbers will be adequately reset and investors will return to the stock once the potential of new products comes into focus over the next 3-6 months. While we are adjusting our price target to $767, we remain optimistic about shares of AAPL.

NOMURA:
The weak Q2 dynamics seem to support our view that Apple is moving into an ex-growth phase in which unit growth is likely to come increasingly at the expense of gross margin declines. The net effect is limited earnings growth, EPS that likely tops-out at $50, which is likely to attract a multiple little better than comparable ex-growth peers such as Microsoft and Cisco. An 8x ex-cash multiple on our EPS forecast of $50 plus $89 in excess cash drives our fair value of $490.

CITI:
We stand by our recent downgrade and continue to rate the shares Neutral. On lower estimates, our price target falls to $500 from $575.

DEUTSCHE BANK:
AAPL reported revs of $54.5B and EPS of $13.81 which beat EPS expectations (vs. Street at $54.5B/$13.33; DB at $53.4B/$12.55). Upside was led by iPhone (48M vs. DB at 45M) and iPad (22.9M vs. DB at 22.0M) which offset light Mac results (4.1M vs. DB at 5.4M). Despite the EPS beat, AAPL revised its guidance format and the combination of margin pressure and decelerating iPhone growth implicit in guidance raises growth concerns. We reset estimates and cut our price target to $575. Trading at $460 in the aftermarket (~7x PE ex cash) we view AAPL as undervalued; maintain Buy.